#robotics #artificialintelligence #economy #technologicalunemployment
#robotics #artificialintelligence #economy #technologicalunemployment
Originally shared by David Fuchs
I read the UK report on robotics and automation and job loss again this morning and realized something. The conclusion that 45% of jobs can be automated into nonexistence is off, they do not seem to be taking Moore's law into account in any significant way. The math breaks down this way, 20yrs times 12 months per year div 18 months per doubling (Moore's law). In 20 years computers will have undergone 13 doublings in processing power and will have become 8,192 times as powerful as they are now.
To put that into perspective, the new NVIDIA Tegra chip does 192 billion instructions per second, in 20 years, for the same cost, you will be able to get a chip that does 1,572,864 billion instructions per second, or a straight up 1,572,864,000,000,000 instructions per second. Or to really put it in perspective, your cellphone will be as smart as you are, and in some cases smarter than you. While that is a bit of an exaggeration, and computing will take several more years to reach that point, it does drive the point home.
Combine the processing power we will see in twenty years, with software capable of working without human supervision, and the UK reports employment numbers are way off, and look downright optimistic.
http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/sites/futuretech.ox.ac.uk/files/The_Future_of_Employment_OMS_Working_Paper_1.pdf
http://www.fiercecio.com/story/another-study-paints-bleak-jobs-future/2013-11-26
#sciencesunday #robotics #automation #robotoverlords #employment